Hey, the games I am playing in at the moment are a complete and total push over. The vast majority of players are playing a complete fit or fold strategy. However, one thing that I keep doing time and time again is becoming suspicious against aggression. It might be the first time I have been raised in a few hundred hands but Ill still bluff catch to showdown. This is a huge leak, my opponents show big hands the vast vast majority of the time in this spot. Tonight a tight regular over a couple hundred hands called my UTG raise, check called my c-bet on a 654 then donked pot on the A turn and again on a random river. I should immediately have identified this line as one that someone with a set would take given that the A is a scare card and I would likely check back hands that would also call a bet. But instead I thought that the line looked really bluffy so I called down. If I had paid attention and not been so suspicious then you can see that its an easy fold. Making these sorts of lay-downs are critical for improving my win rate at this limit. My leak is suspicion.
Bets are very rarely raised at all at this limit. So when we are raised and end up folding, we are not being exploited. If we were we would need to defend our range. But in spots where we are not being exploited, we can just play our hand face up. Over the next few thousand hands I am really going to play extra cautiously in spots where opponents are not regularly exploiting me. In fact, I can currently only think of three spots where villains are printing money against me.
1/ Stealing my blinds
2/ 3 betting my wide late position opens
3/ C - betting against me a ton
In any other spots, my actions should be polarised based on my hand strength I think. Anyhow, rant over and good luck at the tables!
PS update your blog Mr Askew - good to see you back in the games!
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