Hey, another day and a chance to think things through. Whenever I go through a good run of hands I get very confident; in fact I get over confident. I start believing that I somehow have a right to win every pot. Which is obviously a ridiculous and dangerous mindset to have. Here are the facts:
1/ My databases consistently show that I win around 46% - 47% of the time when I see a flop. I think at the micro stakes this is a good number. But notice - this is less than half of the time!
2/ My database consistently shows that when I see a showdown I win around 52% of the time. Again from experience and reading forums this is pretty good. Maybe even a little low - possibly as a result of my slight calling station tendencies. I've always cited suspiciousness as a flaw in my personality and it carries over into poker. Anyway the point is that this is only slightly more than half of the time!
I think this may be the second post I've made about this if I recall, but I think it's worth reiterating. So after running well for a while I've contracted what the message boards know as fancy play syndrome (FPS). But poker at the micros is all about big fat value. Betting when you have the goods and bluffing aggressively when the pot is small to create the illusion that you're also bluffing when the pot is large. This is how to win at these stakes, and for a minute there I lost myself.
Until higher stakes I'm just going to start giving check raises (previous post) a lot more credit. Yes they're often full of crap - but I'm then forced to play a large pot with the potential to make a big mistake. Check raises are probably the least faced move at 25NL full ring rush. It's probably only happened like twice in the last twenty thousand hands or something. Folding to them will not make a jot of difference to my win rate and will prevent me making the sort of mistake that I did yesterday. Right, I must play some hands. GL
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