Quads over Quads, Big Down Swing

http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#70323306587

sc0uzer ($8.75)
zodimar ($25.55)
Hero ($32.29)
SofiStar87 ($11.25)
abra1985 ($25.75)
Guti2010 ($49.87)

sc0uzer posts (SB) $0.10
zodimar posts (BB) $0.25

Dealt to Hero Qs Qd
Hero raises to $0.75
fold, fold,
Guti2010 calls $0.75
fold,
zodimar calls $0.50
FLOP ($2.35) 6h 6c Qh
zodimar checks
Hero bets $1.45
Guti2010 folds
zodimar calls $1.45
TURN ($5.25) 6h 6c Qh Qc
zodimar checks
Hero checks

Cross my fingers and hope for a river bluff.

RIVER ($5.25) 6h 6c Qh Qc 2c
zodimar bets $6.25
Hero raises to $30.09 (AI)

At the time I didn't think any 6x hand would likely over bet the river like this and just assumed he had 99% bluffs and a very very rare second nuts. Perhaps if he puts me on some hand that's trying to see a showdown (KK+, JJ, TT) and he thinks I'm a calling station (true) then the over bet makes more sense. In that case I could have extracted a little more value with a small raise that a 6x hand would call with.

zodimar calls $17.10 (AI)
zodimar shows 6d 6s
(Pre 19%, Flop 95.6%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows Qs Qd
(Pre 81%, Flop 4.4%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero wins $49.95

Anyway, apart from this small ray of light things are going terribly. I'm about 18 buy-ins down over 14k hands at the 6-max games. This is 6 buy-ins below all-in EV so my net expected won is actually negative 12 buy-ins.

It would be very hard for me to sell myself as even a break even player now that I've divulged this information, so I shall not. I played very poorly over the first 2/3 of this sample and made a number of equity mistakes. More recently I've been table selecting better and really slowed down my decision making and managed to improve in this regard.

I can only continue to look for good tables, and try not to fuck up too much. I've made moves in the right direction but I absolutely must continue to play in this vein.

I ran a few simulations over at evplusplus.com and it made me realise how large the down swings can be in 6-max with a small win rate. So I have to try and play my A-game 90% of the time if I can, and continue to table select well. I'll blog again with further updates at some point, but Skyrim is released tomorrow and that will likely get some of my poker time unfortunately. But until I blog again, GL.