Disclaimer: These results are not sustainable in the long run. But I'm not complaining, the more buy-ins I can win before the inevitable downswing or break even stretch the less it will affect me emotionally when it hits.
Basically in the last 40 games I've played (lol at volume) I've won 33 buy-ins as the graph demonstrates.
Overall standard in theses $3.50 buy-in tournaments is pretty bad. There's a handful of regs that look like they're competent (but a pretty small % of the playing field), one or two nits and a heap load of loose passive and loose aggressive fish. All of this means that a TAG strategy with knowledge of ICM push/fold should crush in the long run, but not at the rate I'm currently achieving. I expect that 15-20% ROI is definitely sustainable though which is very good. For this reason I am going to stay with these games for a while.
I can comfortably play about 8 games per hour so I could potentially make about $5 per hour which I'm happy with currently (and this exceeds my projected cash game hourly).
It's been a while since I've enjoyed a good heater so I'm making the most of it. However, knowing that 20-30 buy-in downswings can be common for SNGs I'm not resting on my laurels and I'm reviewing my short stack play after every tournament. Luckily, the ICM is not too difficult in these (although some of the players are terribad e.g calling another big stack in the CO with 22 on the bubble).
When I've got some more meaningful volume then I'll put up my positional statistics in terms of chips won as I think that can provide a good insight into how profitable a game is. Currently I'm running at 15 bb/100. Again, in this day and age I don't think that that's a remotely sustainable chip win rate (especially in a game where there are close push fold decisions) but given the standard of playing field I'd expect 5 or a little higher to be possible.
Right, back to it. GL
EDIT:
I didn't feel that I had enough to say to justify a new post but thought I'd add a couple of things. Results have settled on the 18-man tourney front and the ITM numbers are trending towards some more realistic numbers. They're still clearly skewed upwards thanks to the recent heater though.
I did a little research about the relevance of the chip bb/100 stat in tournament play, and there were mixed opinions. All of the top players who expressed views on this (that I found at least) were winning players in terms of chips accumulated on average. However they also mostly agreed that in many cases the best chip EV play was different from the correct tournament equity play. So while it does give some clue as to a player's profitability it should be viewed as an indicator only.
I have now used up my fpps in the 6-man hyper turbo satellites. They were a lot of fun and I ran well too so I got back a great return for my points. I've used the $T to invest in the 18-man tourneys and so my actual rakeback is really good for my stakes. I highly recommend that good players use this method for spending their fpps. I also looked into perhaps grinding the storm hyper satellites that have an actual $ buy-in because I had so much fun with them. It does appear that it's possible to eek out a small profit (~3% ROI) but with downswings common and large I'm not sure I could manage the emotional rollercoster, even being able to play 50-100 per hour. Still, perhaps I can use them as a recreational alternative to the 18-mans if I ever don't fancy a proper grind.
Finally, on a whim I just bought the e-book Crushing Online Sit-and-Go's by Greg "zerosum79" Jones and I'm very impressed so far. It seems like quite a large initial outlay, but I think the sum of resources and information definitely justifies the price. I don't think I've necessarily learned anything new, just had some familiar concepts presented in a new way. And also been given a great tool for helping to learn ICM for different games. Recommended!
Think that's it, GL!
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